India will lead global growth in 2023 expanding at over 6%: IMF
Washington DC: “India remains a bright spot”, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF), saying that the country leads the growth charge in 2023 and continues to be seen growing over 6 per cent this year and next.
In its World Economic Outlook update, IMF on Tuesday said: “Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 to 6.1 per cent in 2023 before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2024, with resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds.”
India’s growth higher than China, US
According to a report by IMF, China’s growth which was at 3.0 per cent in 2022 is projected to increase to 5.2 per cent as the Asian nation’s sudden re-opening paves the way for a rapid rebound in activity.
However, China’s growth is said to fall to 4.5 per cent in 2024.
As per the IMF report, the US growth for 2023 is projected to fall to 1.4 per cent from 2.0 per cent in 2022, while it is expected to fall further to 1.0 per cent in 2024.
“I want to say, we had a positive view on India in our October forecast. That positive view is largely unchanged,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist and Director, Research Department of the IMF said.
“We have 6.8 per cent growth for this current fiscal year, which runs until March, and then we’re expecting some slowdown to 6.1 per cent in fiscal year 2023. And that is largely driven by external factors,” Gourinchas added.
Global growth outlook
According to IMF’s World Economic Outlook, the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024.
While marginal upward revision has been made by IMF to its global growth forecast for 2023, the Washington-based multilateral lender retained its projection for India for 2022-23 and 2023-24. ‘bright spot.’
The IMF said that slowdown will be more pronounced for advanced economies, with a decline from 2.7 per cent last year to 1.2 per cent and 1.4 per cent this year and next.
Nine out of 10 advanced economies will likely decelerate, the IMF added.
Among major economies, only the United Kingdom is projected to fall into recession (-0.6 per cent) in 2023, while growth in Germany (0.1 per cent) and Russia (0.3 per cent) may remain flat.
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