Will it be Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow?

For Europeans at the Munich Security Conference, the talk was all about betrayal and “appeasement”. President Donald Trump’s looming abandonment of Ukraine raised fears that America was renouncing its role as the guarantor of European security. Yet, the earthquake in relations across the Atlantic seemed to cause barely a ripple in the Pacific, where America’s generals and securocrats at the Honolulu Defence Forum waxed about the importance of boosting Asian allies. Perhaps, suggested one South Korean attendee, cutting a deal with Russia will allow America to focus on deterring the might of China.

The surface calm is in part the result of Asian governments lying low, either because they are indifferent to Europe’s woes or because they want to win Trump’s favour (or at least avoid his ire) and hope he will continue to guarantee Asia’s security. In fact, the countries most likely to be at the receiving end of China’s military bullying have the greatest reason to fear it will be emboldened by a Russian victory.

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The Economist