What Trump is promising between now and April
Donald Trump’s many and overlapping tariff plans can be so hard to keep track of that even he sometimes appears to mix them up.
Markets can also be forgiven for still being confused.
Asked by reporters on Wednesday about the latest on his coming March 4 deadline for tariffs on Mexico and Canada over illegal fentanyl drugs and migration, Trump sowed confusion by saying multiple times that they would come into effect on April 2.
He appeared to be swapping the deadlines for that immediate March 4 tariff threat with his separate reciprocal tariff plan that could indeed come into effect in April after a review by his trade representative’s office.
By Thursday morning, Trump had cleaned up the comments with a social media post saying plainly that the March 4 deadline still stands. He also announced another new plan to double the current tariffs on China with “an additional 10% Tariff on that date.”
He reiterated the pledge for more China tariffs later on Thursday. When asked about negotiations with Canada and Mexico, he responded with regard to progress, “I don’t see it at all, not on drugs.”
Read more: What are tariffs, and how do they affect you?
And Trump continued his varied tariff promises on Thursday. Sitting beside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump focused on the European Union, saying, “We do have problems with the EU because they’ve tariffed us,” but stayed vague on possible new duties for the UK.
“We don’t like the way they’re treating our people. We don’t like the way they’re treating our companies,” he added of the EU, suggesting that reciprocal tariffs on things like automobiles could be in the offing, perhaps on top of the 25% duties he promised earlier this week.
Wednesday and Thursday’s rapid-fire back-and-forth speaks to the ambitious and overlapping tariff plans that Trump has announced — while so far following through on only one piece of them.
Here’s a brief list of Trump’s major threats and their upcoming deadlines:
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March 4: 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico over fentanyl and illegal migration. Additional 10% duties on China.
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March 12: Blanket 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum on producers around the world.
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April 2: Reciprocal tariffs could begin to come into effect on an array of nations.
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Date TBD: 25% tariffs on the European Union.
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Date TBD: New unspecific tariffs threatened on other sectors like copper and automobiles.
The fentanyl-focused tariffs were one of Trump’s first moves upon taking office, imposing 10% duties on Chinese goods on Feb. 4 over the issue while delaying duties on Canada and Mexico until March 4.
But even for all the tariff drama of his first 38 days in office, Trump has only implemented one new duty: those 10% duties on Chinese goods.
In terms of what’s to come, sorting out the real threats from the bluster is becoming a sort of high-stakes parlor game among market watchers.
A recent Goldman Sachs (GS) research paper on the issue asking whether markets were properly pricing in the tariff impacts noted that the answer hinges on whether Trump is “mostly talk, or big action.”
Perhaps the most definitive answer for markets offered in the research is that “uncertainty is the only certainty.”
Charles Schwab (SCHW) chief global investment strategist Jeffrey Kleintop predicted in a recent Yahoo Finance Live appearance that Trump’s “bark is worse than the bite on tariffs” and suggested that many of the current deadlines could continue to slip.
On the aluminum tariffs specifically, the strategist noted that market considerations could be key as “the administration is getting an earful from companies like Ford (F), [and] we know Walmart (WMT) is facing some of these challenges.”
Either way, the economic stakes are high.
The Goldman analysts pointed out that if Trump follows through on just one more of his coming threats — those 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum — and then does nothing else but keep those current 10% China tariffs in place, it would be “roughly equivalent to all of the tariff hikes from the first Trump administration.”
This week’s back-and-forth also underlined the challenge other world leaders have in terms of offering concessions to move Trump.
Trump’s comments during a Cabinet meeting came where he also touted how illegal border crossings have plummeted. But he then refused to give much credit to Mexico or Canada — which have implemented new border measures in response to the tariff threats.
“They’ve been good,” Trump said, but maintained the change in crossing was “mostly due to us.”
In terms of what might actually go into effect next week, the analysts at Signum Global Advisors maintained a base case that Canada was more vulnerable. Talks with Mexico have reportedly gone better, with America’s southern neighbor potentially able to be spared new tariffs for now.
Canada will face tariffs, the group maintained, but noted that the White House could change the shape of those duties to be imposed next week to focus on specific goods as opposed to blanket duties currently promised.
Trump appeared to confirm that Thursday when he said Canada needs to do much more on fentanyl seizures , even as available data shows Canada having a very limited role in illegal migration or fentanyl.
Trump’s flurry of threats this week also included a new promise of 25% duties on the European Union.
Trump has long criticized that grouping of European nations and ratcheted up the rhetorical stakes.
“Let’s be honest, the European Union was formed in order to screw the United States,” Trump said during Wednesday’s meeting.
“They’ve done a good job of it,” he added, “but now I’m president.”
This post has been updated with additional developments.
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
Every Friday, Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman and Ben Werschkul bring you a unique look at how U.S. policy and government affects your bottom line on Capitol Gains. Watch or listen to Capitol Gains on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
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