D-FW prices cooled in March with help from cheaper gas, through tariffs loom

At least some prices are simmering down in North Texas as some key costs cooled in recent months — but is this a sort of calm before the tariff-powered storm?

Overall, prices rose 1.4% in March compared to the year-ago period, according to Consumer Price Index data for the Dallas-Forth Worth region compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That compares with 2.8% in January — and 1.9% in November. D-FW also was much cooler than the national report, which gained more than 2%.

Lower fuel prices were key in bringing down overall prices, John Harvey, a professor of economics at Texas Christian University, pointed out in an emailed statement. Fuel costs dropped more than 12% while vehicle prices declined as well. Housing rose 3.7%.

“In general … inflation has been easing since we’ve put space between us and the COVID supply chain issues and the Russian invasion (notwithstanding the bird flu problems, which emerged in 2022),” Harvey said.

Yet the new report came before some significant tariffs were rolled out, including a widespread 10% implementation. President Donald Trump said he would suspend targeted duties on other countries for three months to allow time for U.S. officials to negotiate with countries that have sought to reduce them. He kept the pressure on China with 145% on imports.

“There’s no question that the tariffs are going to [kill] us,” Harvey said. “Without that, things were returning to normal. With it, who knows? Every other day it’s a different story.”

More than 70% of Americans expect prices to rise on key items in the next six months, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released earlier this week found. They include personal electronics and phones, automobiles and the items consumers buy every day.

The stock market has seen big swings as businesses try to mull potential pricing pressure locally.

In the new pricing report for North Texas, food and beverages — a topic of concern in the past several months — was 1.4% higher as well. The category that includes eggs was up 2.1% but down 4.1% from the previous month. Dairy and related products jumped 6.1% while falling from the recent month. The cost of fruits and vegetables continued to slide.

Alcoholic beverages fell from the year-ago period, with a slight decline of 0.3%. Medical care saw a steeper decline.