Will US Strike Iran? How Will Khamenei Retaliate? Will Pahlavi Be Back? Key Questions Answered

Last Updated:January 14, 2026, 13:51 IST

US President Donald Trump urged Iran’s demonstrators to continue their movement and “take over the institutions”, promising “help is on its way”

Amid the mounting unrest in Iran, United States Donald Trump, on Truth Social, proclaimed that “help is on its way”.

US Senator Lindsey Graham later suggested that Trump’s reference to “help” could include military or cyber actions, adding to speculation over Washington’s next steps. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told closed-door meetings that the administration is also weighing non-kinetic options to support protesters, including cyber measures, according to Axios.

What will happen if the US actually strikes Iran? What will Iran do? Will there be a change of regime? Will Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah and a prominent voice in the fragmented opposition, return?

Iran crisis: The protests & US response

The Islamic Republic’s clerical authorities are facing the biggest demonstrations since 2022 and on Sunday a rights group said that the unrest has killed more than 500 people. An Iranian official indicated on Tuesday the number was higher, at around 2,000. “This cycle of horrific violence cannot continue. The Iranian people and their demands for fairness, equality and justice must be heard,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said in a statement read out by UN rights office spokesperson Jeremy Laurence.

Iran is set to witness more brutality as the administration has decided to execute its first protester on Wednesday amid mass arrests of anti-regime protesters, The New York Post reported, citing human rights groups. Erfan Soltani, 26, is allegedly scheduled to be hanged to death after his arrest during the protests in Karaj last Thursday (local time), the Iran Human Rights (IHR) and National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFD) NGO groups said. The NUFD reported that the man’s “only crime is calling for freedom for Iran”.

According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency report on Monday, at the end of the 17th day, a total of 614 protest gatherings had been recorded nationwide. These demonstrations took place in 187 cities and covered all 31 provinces of the country. The detention of 18,434 individuals has been confirmed. The agency also said, the deaths of 2,403 protesters have been confirmed. Among those killed were 12 children, 147 members of security forces and government supporters, including at least five civilian supporters of the government.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, the US president said he had cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials “until the senseless killing of protesters stops”. He also urged demonstrators to continue their movement and “take over your institutions,” remarks that Tehran has described as open interference in its internal affairs.

Speaking to reporters, Trump said his administration was seeking verified information on the scale of the killings and would respond accordingly. “The killing looks like it’s significant, but we don’t know yet for certain… we’ll act based on what we learn,” he said, while urging Iran’s leaders to “show humanity” and warning against further bloodshed.

Tehran has strongly responded, with Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, accusing the US and Israel of being the “main killers of the people of Iran”, naming Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in response to the president’s social media post.

Iran’s defence minister warned that any aggression would be met with a “forceful” response, including strikes on US military installations in the region and on Israel.

When asked about Iran’s threat to retaliate in the event of US strikes, Trump dismissed the warning, saying Tehran “better behave”.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had on Sunday asked Trump to “manage his own country” instead of commenting on Iran’s internal affairs. In a message posted on X, Khamenei accused the US President of encouraging unrest in Iran while failing to address serious problems at home. “The President of the United States declared that if the Iranian government did this or that, he would side with the rioters. The rioters have placed their hopes in him. If he is so competent, let him manage his own country then,” Khamenei wrote.

Question 1. How will Iran retaliate? How?

If the US strikes Iran militarily, Tehran is highly unlikely to stay passive, even if it tries to limit escalation.

According to analysts, several layers of response are possible:

• Iran has a large short- and mid-range missile arsenal and has used missiles against U.S. forces before. Retaliation against bases in Iraq, Syria, the Gulf, or naval assets is a primary option.
• Iran could activate allies like Hezbollah (Lebanon), Kataib Hezbollah (Iraq), and the Houthis (Yemen) to strike US interests, Israeli targets, or allied infrastructure across the Middle East.
• Iran might deploy mines, small craft, or missiles to disrupt or threaten navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global energy supplies.
• Tehran has invested heavily in cyber capabilities. Attacks on U.S. civilian infrastructure (energy, water, financial systems) are plausible and could cause widespread disruption without direct military engagement.
• Targeted assassinations, sabotage campaigns, or support for global terror cells have been used historically and could resurface as asymmetric retaliation.

Question 2: Can a US strike cause regime change in Iran?

Experts say the Iranian state and Revolutionary Guard are highly resilient and have survived sanctions, covert action, proxy wars, and bombings for decades. Experts say strikes alone are unlikely to dismantle the regime’s structure. Military blows could strengthen hardliners who argue that resisting U.S. pressure is the key to regime legitimacy.

Mass protests since 2025 have already challenged the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy, but they lack unified leadership and a clear political roadmap. Iranian power structures (security forces, IRGC, clerical establishment) are deeply entrenched; even in periods of unrest, they often weather upheaval.

Real transformation would likely require major internal political shifts, defections, and sustained mass mobilisation.

Question 3: Will the Pahlavi monarchy return?

White House envoy Steve Witkoff over the weekend met with Reza Pahlavi to discuss the protests roiling that country, Axios reported on Tuesday, citing an unidentified senior US official. Against this backdrop, Trump has issued a series of unusually direct messages to both the Iranian leadership and protesters.

Reza Pahlavi on Tuesday (local time) appealed to protesters and the country’s armed forces, asserting that the world not only saw and heard the demonstrators’ courage and voice but is also “taking action”. He urged citizens to sustain the movement against the Khamenei regime and warned that those responsible for violence would eventually be held accountable.

In a video message shared on X, Pahlavi said Trump had responded to the protests, asserting that the voices of Iranians were being heard beyond the country’s borders.

Addressing protesters directly, he said, “My compatriots, as I told you in my previous message, the world not only saw and heard your courage and voice but is taking action. By now, you have undoubtedly heard the message from the President of the United States. Help is on the way.”

Many Iranians, however, view monarchy as another form of authoritarian rule rather than a democratic alternative. Moreover, there is no clear constitutional framework or power structure exists for reinstating a monarchy. Pahlavi has limited political influence inside Iran due to exile and the strength of existing institutions. Major global powers (including the U.S.) are cautious about endorsing a monarchy because it could be seen as foreign-imposed leadership, which historically backfires as a legitimacy issue.

Question 4: How would a US strike impact the world?

Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar, have warned against strikes due to fears of escalation. Russia and other powers publicly oppose external intervention, raising risks of broader geopolitical stand-offs.

Ruptures in the Strait of Hormuz or increased oil price volatility could disrupt global energy markets.

Major powers like China, Russia, and the EU may view unilateral action as destabilising, potentially fracturing international coalitions and non-proliferation regimes.

With Agency Inputs

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