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Unrest in Iran complicates India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy

India is watching the unfolding events in Iran with concern as a potential change in government in Tehran could reduce its “strategic manoeuvring space” in the region, even as it continues to confront security challenges posed by arch-rival Pakistan and China, analysts say.

On Monday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei acknowledged that “several thousands” of Iranians had been killed since protests started in late December in Tehran. Human rights groups have claimed that the figure is much larger.

The protesters were demanding an end to the reign of Islamic clerics in the country amid harsh economic conditions due partly to international sanctions against Tehran. Last week, US President Donald Trump threatened intervention to protect Iranian protesters, proclaiming on social media that “help is on its way”.

While the unrest has eased in recent days, thousands of heavily armed security forces have reportedly set up patrols and checkpoints across the country, especially at flashpoints such as the Grand Bazaar in Tehran.

On January 14, the Indian government advised its nationals to avoid travel to Iran until further notice.

India was monitoring the ongoing unrest in Iran with “quiet unease” due to the deep historical and strategic ties between New Delhi and Tehran, said Sriparna Pathak, a China studies and international relations professor at O.P. Jindal Global University’s Jindal School of International Affairs.

Social Media Asia Editor