US-Iran tensions; will Donald Trump attack Tehran? Conflict explained

U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a fresh threat to Iran, on Thursday (January 29, 2026) after months of simmering tensions.

“A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthU.S.iasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela,” wrote Mr. Trump in a social media post on Wednesday (January 28, 2026).

Also Read |What is happening in Iran? 

Tehran has promised a response “like never before.” 

But what is the conflict and what are the key developments leading to this altercation? Read to know.

Why are the U.S. and Iran at loggerheads? 

The history of the U.S.-Iran tensions go back to the early 1950s but the latest tensions began in June 2025. The reasons include the U.S.’ demand that Iran end its ballistic missile programme, destroy its stockpiles and stop Uranium enrichment. Tehran has strongly rejected these demands with spokespersons labelling them ‘excessive’ and ‘illogical.’ 

‘Twelve Day War’ 

Iran, the U.S., and Israel got embroiled in a ‘twelve day war’ in June 2025.

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched ‘Operation Rising Lion’ a military campaign aimed at dismantling Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, as well as paralyzing military leadership. Hossein Salami (Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and Mohammad Bagheri (Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces) were assassinated in the Israeli attack. 

Tehran responded by firing 550 ballistic missiles. 

On June 22, Mr. Trump ordered a direct military attack on Iran, following Tehran’s insistence to continue nuclear enrichment, named ‘Operation Midnight Hammer.’ 

The U.S. attacked key nuclear enrichment sites in Iran with the help of ‘bunker busters,’ stealth bombers in an 18-hour non-stop mission from the mid-western American state of Missouri. 

Two days later, the flare-up ended, following intense negotiations with Oman and Qatar. Israel and US offensives and Iran’s retaliation killed approximately 1,000 Iranians and 29 Israelis.

International response

The international response to the war was varied. While Russia and China condemned the attacks by the U.S., others like the European Union (EU) criticised Iran for trying to acquire a nuclear bomb but also called for ‘restraint.’

Protests in Iran 

Meanwhile in December 2025, Iran saw massive internal protests, following soaring food prices and a slowing economy. Mr. Trump asked Iranian citizens to “take over your institutions” and warned of “speed and violence” if the regime continues its lethal crackdown on protesters. 

Punitive economic measures 

As part of his trend of imposing economic sanctions, Mr. Trump has threatened any country that trades with Iran with a 25% tariff, leading to an eventual slowing down of Iranian trade, with its currency, the Rial, dropping to a historic low. 

Iran’s response

Iranian response to threats from the U.S. has been mostly aggressive with Tehran adopting a ‘finger on the trigger’ strategy and threatening a quick military response if the U.S. attacks. 

The 2026 ‘Armada’ threat

Mr. Trump has now claimed that ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’ was only a “warning shot.” He has also deployed an armada of an aircraft carrier, multiple destroyers, and stealth bombers near Iran, as a warning, leading to global concerns about another full-blown war. 

Two week decision window

Mr. Trump has said that he will observe the Iranian response on his ultimatum, for two weeks and then decide if a direct military action is necessary. 

Diplomacy continues

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will be holding diplomatic talks in Turkiye on Friday (January 30, 2026.) Mr. Trump plans to hold the talks but has stated that the “massive armada” plans to fulfill its mission if they fail.