Hormuz standoff turns into a cautious waiting game as US blockade begins

The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by 15 warships has begun amid a tense but cautious standoff, as evidenced by the level of maritime traffic, and with no reports of military engagement, as the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is still holding.

Oil prices keep rising and falling amid messages between the US, Iran and other actors, as markets watch the state of the ceasefire and developments in the Strait of Hormuz.

Hours after the US blockade began, US President Donald Trump announced that Iran had made contact, claiming that Tehran wants a deal “very badly” after the collapse of the weekend talks in Pakistan and after he warned on his social media that Iranian ships threatening the US-led Hormuz blockade “would be eliminated”.

On Tuesday morning Pakistan announced it is working on a possible new round of talks between the US and Iran.

“I can tell you we’ve been called by the other side. They would like to make a deal very badly … We have been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people,” Trump said late Monday.

The US blockade of Iranian ports and Iranian ships began late Monday, with the US Central Command (CENTCOM) stating that US forces will allow navigation to or from non-Iranian ports as the blockade focuses on maritime traffic entering or leaving any Iranian ports, including Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Accepting Iran’s ‘protection racket’

Iran has warned that it would respond to the US blockade of Iranian ports, threatening that no ports in the region “will be safe” if Iranian ports are “threatened.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) warned in a statement to semi-official Tasnim news agency that “all traffic… is under the full control of the armed forces,” adding that “any wrong move will trap the enemy in deadly whirlpools in the strait.”

According to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank’s observations, the US Navy is attempting to prevent Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels from entering and exiting the strait.

Meanwhile, Iran prevents all other vessels from entering or exiting the strait, and the only ships moving through it are Iranian and Iranian-approved vessels.

“These Iranian-approved vessels are acceding to Iran’s protection racket and using Iran’s unilaterally imposed traffic separation scheme that forces vessels into Iranian territorial waters,” the ISW said.

“Very few ships are transiting the strait other than the ships moving through Iran’s territorial waters,” the think tank explained, adding that “Iran has used threats of attacks and a limited number of mines to declare a “hazardous area” across the entire waterway except for Iranian territorial waters, where Iran then imposes fees.

Beijing brokers Tehran deal

As the US enforcement of Hormuz begins, China has signalled that it has worked out its own agreement with Iran to allow for its much-needed oil shipments to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and it warned the US directly not to interfere.

Chinese Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun announced that China has “trade and energy agreements with Iran and we expect others not to interfere in our affairs. »

“Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open for us,” the Chinese defence minister said in a sign of recognising Iran’s claims that it controls maritime traffic in the strait.

Chinese tanker Rich Starry did pass through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday morning, shipping data show, but it departed from the UAE port of Sharjah and was therefore not subject to the US blockade.

Shipping data shows that two other China-bound tankers attempted to enter Hormuz but then turned back.