The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) began in the Chinese capital city of Beijing on Sunday. The Congress, which changed its constitution in 2018 to withdraw the two-term restriction on an individual to hold China’s presidential office, is expected to allow another term for Xi Jinping who became the Chinese president in 2013 and retained his office in 2018.
The event has significant concern worldwide, including in India, as Jinping is known for his aggressive style of nationalist politics and his expansionist agenda.
CNN-News18’s Santosh Chaubey spoke to Kanwal Sibal, a career diplomat with over 40 years of experience, who has been India’s Ambassador to Russia, France, Turkey, and Egypt. Considered one of the most well-known foreign policy experts in India, he is regularly published by national and international media organisations.
Edited excerpts:
What’s the significance of the 20th CCP Congress for India?
We need to see the outcome of the Congress but China’s policies toward India are expected to remain the same. The future will depend on how Xi Jinping intends to move ahead in his third presidential term. He needs to ensure full control in China’s political corridors by pushing in his loyalists to all important decision-making bodies of the CCP, including the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), which is the highest decision-making body of the CCP.
Will there be another chairman like Mao Zedong in China?
The post of General Secretary has no limits. The presidential position had a two-term limit, which is expected to change. Xi Jinping will be both the General Secretary as well as the President. We need to wait and see if he will be made ‘Chairman’ like Mao.
Will the world see a more hard-line Xi Jinping?
Xi Jinping’s personality is what it is; a hardliner, tough man.
I don’t think he will become softer. Another presidential term may make him more hard-line in policies overall because it would mean he has proven that his strategies have nationwide political support. China is facing an economic slowdown due to the zero Covid-19 policy and its fallout has seen internal differences in the CCP. The country has seen even rare public protests over it. Jinping launched an anti-corruption drive that has seen mass-scale convictions, including big political names. The regulatory crackdown by his government is targeted against many big private industrial corporations like Alibaba and Tencent.
Despite all of this, he continued to promote his policies in advance of the 20th Congress, even if it meant hardship at the cost of the people.
The system is different in India — a democratic system. To get support and win elections here, the political class needs to go to the public and do things that the public wants.
In China, it is the opposite. Jinping has taken on private sector giants. The lifeline of its economy, the real estate sector, is in trouble. There are a lot of issues on the table and if, despite that, he gets what he wants, then why should he change his policy? Why should he become softer?
Would you consider the Taiwan stand as an example?
Jinping has been very tough in his messaging on Taiwan despite America’s support for the island nation. Taiwan becoming a part of China is extremely important to China and Xi Jinping. China under Jinping has continued with its aggressive policy in South China and East China Seas despite threats and sanctions by the United States, now on sensitive tech exports to China like advanced chips that will impose on China a heavy price. In that background, one can’t see him relenting on the border issue with India.
Is there pressure on India?
Apologists say China is tough on India because we are getting closer to the United States. India today is far more committed to the Quad than ever before. This is borne out by the statements made by the minister of external affairs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has talked about Quad as a “force for public good”. So, raising concerns about our relations with the US is a way to put India under pressure.
Will China become more hostile and assertive in the Indian Ocean?
Yes and no. A lot will depend on how much activity China can generate in the Indian Ocean. The country is building a huge navy, aircraft carriers, and other related military equipment on a scale that can’t be confined just to the South China Sea. It has to come out but then it needs to be protected.
China can enter the Indian Ocean area and establish a base in Pakistan but that will not be enough. China and India have had a spat with Sri Lanka on the Chinese research ship recently. So, the next time, Sri Lankans will have to be doubly careful in allowing such Chinese ships to use their harbours.
Hence, it won’t be easy for China to establish itself in the Indian Ocean, but of course, we have to keep track of their nuclear submarines. For that, we are collaborating with the United States, Australia, France, and Japan. Those issues are there but the challenge is not immediate.
What will be India’s strategy?
The important thing is that we are not closing the dialogue with China despite increased tension post the Galwan clash, as otherwise our position on multi-polarity will get weakened. It is a wise move to keep our options open and not put all the eggs in one basket.
So, on one hand, we are maintaining our relations with Russia because it is a friendly country and we are also keeping our dialogue with China open, which is our adversary. We are also getting closer to the US and the West in general. No partner should think that India has no options.
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