Why TikTok May Just Go Away On Its Own | Opinion

I used to work at an upstart new digital service called AOL. The environment was a bit unreal compared to previous places I’d worked—go all out, essentially. Push every button, partner with everyone, don’t ask too many questions, and most important—grow at all costs.

I’m not sure if that’s the strategy at TikTok and their China-based owner ByteDance, but TikTok has grown so rapidly that one could legitimately raise the question.

Having worked with TikTok a bit (albeit from the outside), I sense ByteDance’s ambitions to be more focused and refined these days.

I think ByteDance’s goal is to make the enterprise into the most formidable shopping channel out there, one that can fuse the community and energy of a huge social network with commerce. It’s not a stretch to envision TikTok and many of ByteDance’s apps eventually looking more like Amazon than Instagram, Snapchat, or X. It’s also not unrealistic to think about TikTok as an extremely profitable retailer, a direct-to-consumer player that can leverage direct relationships with Chinese manufacturers.

Here’s an even simpler view of the strategy—ByteDance provides the tools and support to content partners, advertisers, and social influencers, and it keeps its eyes open on new opportunities (like shopping, advertiser tools, even security tools to help users). And it eventually builds itself a giant new revenue stream and positioning in the market, mostly from driving commerce. TikTok’s influencers might even look closer to shopping personalities, not so far off from what one might remember from cable networks like HSN or QVC.

But here’s the rub—How long can TikTok dominate as a social network? Sure, at over a billion and a half users, they’re a juggernaut, one that has become a dominant influence (if not disrupter) in industries from music to fashion, and certainly politics. But I’ve seen a lot of Big Tech networks—social or not so social—just decline over time, not from anything specific, just because sands shift and new players come onto the field, and some of these engage audiences—often younger audiences—in ways that are more appealing.

MySpace and Vine come to mind, as does AOL. Some aren’t so engaging with current audiences—think about Meta‘s Threads, or even Apple‘s Ping, a rare miss for Apple. I can’t cite a single reason why AOL eventually went away, but there were a lot of options competing against us in the market, and eventually audiences gravitated to them, no matter how hard we tried to change. And we did make a game attempt at a shopping strategy.

So what stands out to me with TikTok? For one, younger audiences have adopted it, for news, music, politics—and an influencer economy has emerged from it, with lots of potential.

In music, TikTok has become an essential platform for breaking talent, maybe even more important than radio or streamers like Spotify—a huge statement. Those artists may not be as long-lasting as in earlier decades, but TikTok is definitely central to putting them on audiences’ radar.

The “influencer economy” is an emerging mystery to me, but I do see lots of potential for the combination of brands and influencers, and TikTok is a kingmaker there.

I witnessed this in person at the recent Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity, where TikTok’s pavilion at a ritzy hotel seemed closer to a theme park than an office. There’s no doubt advertisers want to be part of it all.

TikTok’s engine runs on multiple cylinders—with content like news, politics, and fashion—so it is very well positioned. So well positioned one might think it will defend its dominance and keep growing.

But I do think the opposition it faces from governments, regulators—and increasingly people concerned about privacy—will weigh on it, particularly if the U.S. government does succeed in splitting TikTok off and a new, different U.S. algorithm comes along for U.S. audiences.

Don’t get me wrong. A government can do enormous damage to any app—TikTok and WeChat included—by “de-platforming” it or forcing a change in ownership.

But TikTok’s algorithm and addictive “For You” page seems so central to its success. A new algorithm especially created for U.S. audiences could potentially change the TikTok user experience; even a slight change could send younger audiences off in a different direction, maybe to Instagram’s Reels, to Snapchat, or perhaps one of a new generation of social or gaming apps all seeking mindshare and time.

Sure, I may be over-reacting, as TikTok is so embedded in popular digital culture and business that it may weather this storm transparently. But it’s possible the pressure and a new algorithm could set off an avalanche that might truly change the picture for TikTok and ByteDance, so much that they might just decline on their own.

Seth A. Schachner is managing director at Strat Americas, a media and entertainment consultancy.

The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.