Stock markets across Europe have dropped, after Donald Trump intensified his trade war last night.

Germany’s DAX index has dropped by 1.1% at the start of trading in Frankfurt, while France’s CAC fell by almost 1% and Spain’s IBEX lost 0.6% – even though Europe reached a trade deal with the US at the start of this week.

That, and the 0.5% drop on the London stock market (see here), shows concerns that Trump’s tariffs will weigh on the global economy, weakening trade growth.

Trump’s tariffs are a huge blow to global commerce, warns Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg bank.

Bakiskan’s verdict is that that the situation is bad, but could have been even worse, explaining:

The tariffs distort competition between companies that produce in the US to serve the US market relative to those that produce abroad. But many European, Japanese and South Korean-based producers compete more against each other than against US-based producers in the US market.

As they all face a 15% levy, the competition between them is distorted by less than would have been the case if Trump had imposed widely different country-specific US tariffs against these key advanced economies.

The US trade war has been hampering UK and eurozone manufacturers, new data shows.

The latest poll of purchasing managers at British factories, just released, highlights that new orders at UK manufacturers fell in July.

Data provider S&P Global says:

New export orders have now decreased throughout the past three-and-a-half years, with the latest decline reflecting global tariff uncertainties, ongoing administrative issues postBrexit and rising competition.

There were reports of lower demand from North America, mainland Europe, the Middle East, India and mainland China.

A survey of eurozone factories, also released this morning, found that their supply chains remained strained in July, with delivery times lengthening.

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, explains:

“Given the fragility of the recovery, it is not demand that is causing customers to wait longer for their goods. Volatile U.S. tariff policies and uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions may play a key role here. We expect that companies will continue to face sudden supply chain disruptions for the foreseeable future.”

President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year, reports Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at City consultancy Capital Economics.

Brown told clients this morning:

That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest downside risks to our forecast for global GDP growth and a small upside risk to our US inflation forecast.

That said, this is unlikely to be the final word, as it still seems likely that some other countries will reach their own deals with the US, while there is a chance that the US courts will eventually strike down these tariffs.

The headline 15% tariff rate applying to most EU goods is better than most countries as it is not in addition, or stacked on top of, a pre-existing tariff, say experts.

That was the snap analysis of Donald Trump’s tariff list by David Henig, director at the European Centre for International Political Economy.

He posted on social media:

“New US tariffs dropped. Don’t be Switzerland. Do be the EU that uniquely got a concession on tariff stacking, which should but won’t silence the doomsters with no actual trade policy or geopolitical knowledge.”

The EU says its pre-Trump average tariff was 4.8%, arguing therefore, that the 15%, is closer to others who have secured a 10% baseline tariff.

The UK’s 10% tariff is stacked on top of the average most favoured nation tariff rate of 3.8% that applied before Trump was elected, bringing the post-Trump average to 13.8% tariff.

By contrast the EU’s 15% is inclusive of the pre-Trump MFN of 4.8%.

The US stock market is set to fall when trading begins in New York in five and a half hours.

The futures market indictates that the S&P 500 – the broad index of US stocks – is on track to fall around 0.85%.

The futures contract for the tech-focused Nasdaq index is down 0.87%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (which tracks 30 large US companies) futures is down 0.9%.

Shares in Watches of Switzerland, the London-listed timepiece retailer, have fallen by over 5% after Donald Trump hit Swiss imports to the US with a 39% tariff.

Traders will be calculating that Watches of Switzerland will either suffer weaker US sales (American customers will pay the tariff, so its prices will be less competitive), or be forced to cut its prices in response (hitting its profits).

The Falkland Islands is the only trading partner apart from the UK that is specified in the White House list as having a 10% tariff rate on its exports to the US.

It is one of 14 British overseas territories and its top export to the US is non-fillet frozen fish.

According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, it sold just under $26m (£19.6m) of the fish to the US in 2023, accounting for 96% of its $27.4m sales to the US in 2023.

The order states that goods imported from every nation on Earth will be subject to a 10% tariff except for goods from the 92 countries listed in an annex that are subject to higher tariff rates.

Australia, which is not listed in the annex, said it assumed that its tariff was 10%.

South Africa’s financial markets have been rattled by Trump’s decision to impose a 30% tariff on its exports to the US.

South Africa’s JSE FTSE all share index has fallen by 1.2% in morning trading, with ‘consumer cyclicals’ the worst-performing sector.

The South African rand is on the backfoot this morning too. It dipped to a two-month low of 18.24 against the US dollar, its lowest level since mid-May.

Stock markets across Europe have dropped, after Donald Trump intensified his trade war last night.

Germany’s DAX index has dropped by 1.1% at the start of trading in Frankfurt, while France’s CAC fell by almost 1% and Spain’s IBEX lost 0.6% – even though Europe reached a trade deal with the US at the start of this week.

That, and the 0.5% drop on the London stock market (see here), shows concerns that Trump’s tariffs will weigh on the global economy, weakening trade growth.

London’s stock market has opened in the red, as the City digests Donald Trump’s swathe of tariffs on trading partners.

The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has dropped by over 0.5%, down 50 points at 9082 points.

That’s a fairly mild drop, taking the ‘Footsie’ away from the record high set yesterday, following the modest losses in Asia-Pacific markets earlier.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, explains:

Market reactions to the newly announced tariffs, have been relatively subdued, largely due to recent trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea + others that have mitigated their impact.

Mexico’s 90-day tariff reprieve and positive progress on US-China trade talks, as noted by President Trump, further softened the blow.

In the currency markets, the Swiss franc has dipped against the US dollar after Donald Trump imposed a 39% tariff on imports from Switzerland.

The Swiss franc is down 0.15% at 0.813 per dollar.