Hello, from Tokyo. Stable politics require a stable government. Particularly now, with conflicts erupting across the globe, political and economic divisions deepening and the U.S., the leader of the democratic world, appearing increasingly unpredictable, having a stable government is essential for a country. Against this backdrop, two Asian nations that have seen repeated changes of leaders in recent years are holding general elections this weekend.

In Japan, a lower house election is taking place on Sunday, just months after Sanae Takaichi became the nation’s first female prime minister. Takaichi has declared that she is putting her own political fate on the line. Under her leadership, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has, for the first time in a national election, pledged to cut consumption taxes — a move widely criticized as “tax-cut populism” aimed at winning voter support. Her remarks, which appear to tolerate a weaker yen, have heightened market sensitivity, and the election’s outcome is likely to have significant implications not only for Japan’s markets but also for global markets.

A key question is whether the election results will bring an end to Japan’s “revolving-door leadership.” If the LDP wins a sweeping victory, that could become more likely.

Thailand, which has experienced continued political instability, is also holding a general election on Sunday. Local opinion polls suggest that the largest opposition group, the People’s Party, is in the lead, but nothing is guaranteed. In Thai politics, what attracts even more attention than the voting itself is the post-election coalition negotiations among parties. As I mentioned in a previous newsletter, the choice of Thailand’s next leader will also significantly affect tensions along the country’s border with Cambodia.

Nikkei Asia will provide comprehensive coverage of these historic dual elections in Asia. Beginning in the early evening in Asia on Sunday, before vote counting starts in Japan and Thailand, we will launch live blogs for each election to deliver developments in real time. We plan to provide the most detailed reporting possible on the two elections. After this weekend, on Feb. 12, Bangladesh is scheduled to hold its first general election since the mass uprising in summer 2024 that ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Please enjoy our ongoing coverage and analysis of Asia’s election rush.

My suggested reads

1. With a record 43 million overseas visitors coming to Japan in 2025, our latest Big in Asia takes a look at the calm of Kanazawa versus the crowds of Kyoto. This contrast shines a light on overtourism in major urban centers, especially as “foreigner fatigue” stokes tensions and has become a talking point in the upcoming national election.

2. Indonesia’s capital markets face mounting pressure after index provider MSCI flagged concerns over transparency, raising the risk of a downgrade from emerging to frontier market status. But, as Trading Asia explores, such a move could trigger tens of billions of dollars in foreign fund outflows, intensifying volatility and complicating Jakarta’s hopes for a revival in IPOs.

3. Our reporters in Silicon Valley and Hong Kong have taken a long hard look at the capital expenditures, past and planned, of companies such as Meta, Microsoft, Alibaba and Tencent. AI fever, they found, is continuing to push up spending, but revenue growth is emerging in new areas outside the cloud.

Wishing you a wonderful weekend!

Akito Tanaka

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