Silver price prediction, outlook by analysts: Gaining back its sheen again Will previous high become reality soon?

Gold and silver prices struck a cautious yet volatile note across international and domestic markets, reflecting a tug-of-war between easing geopolitical risks and shifting monetary expectations. On Wednesday, precious metal futures opened higher on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), even as progress in US-Iran talks in Geneva tempered safe-haven demand. MCX Gold futures due April 2026 climbed Rs 1,885, or 1.2%, to Rs 1,53,303 per 10 grams, while silver futures for March 5, 2026 delivery surged Rs 4,556, or 2%, to Rs 2,33,339 per kg. Early session gains pushed silver prices up more than 3%.

Silver commodity-based ETFs rose up to 2.62% following the rebound in prices. TATA Silver ETF traded at Rs 22.89, registering a gain of 2.55%, while 360 ONE Silver ETF rose 2.52% to Rs 233.23. DSP Silver ETF advanced 2.43% to Rs 226.80, and SBI Silver ETF increased 2.37% to Rs 230.41. UTI Silver ETF climbed 2.35% to Rs 227.29, while Nippon Silver ETF gained 2.34% to Rs 225.18. Aditya Birla Silver ETF was up 2.32% at Rs 234.65, and Zerodha Silver ETF rose 2.31% to Rs 23.90.

Despite the rebound, silver has remained under pressure over the past week. Analysts attribute this to thin liquidity caused by holidays across Asian markets, coupled with softer US inflation data that strengthened expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. In the international market, gold slipped 0.2% to around $4,867 per ounce, while silver eased to about $73.30 per ounce.

Analysts at ANZ told Reuters that gold prices softened as a firmer US dollar weighed on sentiment, while declining US Treasury yields offered only limited support. They noted that Asian trading volumes remained muted, with investors cautious amid lingering uncertainty. Positive signals from the Iran–US talks in Geneva further reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

Silver’s corrective phase

From a technical perspective, experts believe silver is in a corrective phase rather than a structural breakdown. “COMEX Silver is trading near the $73–$80 zone after a steep correction from record highs above $121. While the broader bullish structure remains intact on higher timeframes, the sharp pullback has pushed prices below major moving averages, indicating short-term bearish pressure and an extended corrective phase,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

He pointed out that demand remains firm at lower levels. “Strong buying interest is visible in the $65–$70 support band, aligned with prior swing lows and long-term trend support. A sustained hold above this base, followed by a recovery and close above $85–$92, could reignite upside momentum toward $95–$105 and potentially retest previous highs.” He added thar the medium- to long-term outlook for silver remains constructive, backed by steady industrial demand and structural supply constraints, despite elevated volatility.

Liquidity conditions and speculative positioning have also played a major role. “Silver dropped over 2% to below $76/oz as liquidity remained subdued amid market holidays in China, Hong Kong and other parts of Asia. Chinese traders had driven a speculative surge in precious metals in January before the dramatic reversal, prompting authorities to curb market risks through various measures,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Indusind Securities. 

He added, “Silver surged to a record above $120 per ounce in late January, then tumbled to roughly $64 earlier this month as leveraged positions were unwound and investors liquidated holdings to cover losses elsewhere.”

Trivedi noted that macro cues remain crucial. “On Friday, silver rebounded nearly 3% after softer-than-expected US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Fed will begin easing later this year… MCX Silver March prices are likely to decline to Rs 235,000/kg amid a weak sentiment in the global markets.”

Industry voices echo the view that volatility cuts both ways. Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, IBJA, said: “The silver market is experiencing a more severe downturn due to the general sell-off in commodities… While the current pressure may continue, intense corrections tend to lure in buyers once markets calm down.”

More risks ahead?

Commodity Strategist, Ole S Hansen in a social media post on X, said that silver may face additional short-term weakness towards the $70/oz mark. (1 kg = 35.274 oz)

Hansen said: “Gold and silver trade sharply lower amid muted activity, with much of Asia closed for the Lunar New Year. The move highlights the importance of Asian — and especially Chinese — demand, which helped propel prices higher in recent months. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have failed to boost prices, some caution has also emerged around the dollar after a Bank of America survey showed fund managers holding their most bearish dollar stance in a decade, raising the risk of a counter-trend rebound. Gold has so far found support at USD 4,860 (as mentioned in yesterday’s update), ahead of the next level at USD 4,670. In silver, two lower highs during the latest corrective rebound point to fading conviction and may signal additional short-term weakness towards USD 70.”

Yet, for longer-term investors, corrections may be opportunities. Jaime Carrasco of Harbourfront Wealth summed it up: “Gold continues to reprice against a structurally weakening fiat system… Pullbacks during a monetary transition are features — not bugs. They transfer metal from weak hands to strong hands. The allocation is what matters.”

Aamir Makda Commodity & Currency Analyst, Choice Broking, said: “The week-long closure of major hubs like the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) for the Lunar New Year creates a significant liquidity vacuum in the global bullion market. As the world’s largest physical buyers go offline, trading volumes thin out, often resulting in exaggerated price volatility and wider bid-ask spreads. Historically, this period triggers a price correction; once the pre-holiday buying pressure from China ceases, traders who entered positions early often engage in profit-taking, leading to a downward shift in momentum. Silver is particularly vulnerable during this timeframe compared to gold, because Chinese industrial production hits a standstill during the festivities, and the dramatic drop in manufacturing demand makes silver prices much more susceptible to a sharp decline. With this perspective, it is advised that traders avoid taking trades in bullion.”