The potential for Ireland to be engulfed in economic turmoil as a result of the war in Iran dominates Thursday’s headlines.

AIB is warning inflation here could accelerate to 7 per cent this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded for an extended period and oil prices increase further.

Our lead story by Eoin Burke-Kennedy reports on the bank’s latest economic outlook, which suggests Irish economic growth will be more muted because of the “lingering geopolitical uncertainty” and as the front-loading of exports last year unwinds.

Meanwhile, in a longer-term warning, the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) will tell the Dáil’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC) today that Ireland’s national debt could approach €250 billion by the 2030s.

Martin Wall reports that NTMA chief executive Frank O’Connor is expected to say such a level of debt carries risk and that the era of the State borrowing money at low interest rates was over.

A rise in inflation brings more immediate political implications as it would of course bring further pressure on the Government to do more to help households with the cost of living.

While the exchequer has been enjoying surpluses – largely due to a continuing corporation tax windfall – the Coalition is not unaware of the economic headwinds buffeting the country.

It is perhaps one reason that this year’s budget package is set to be some €2.4 billion smaller than last year’s.

Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris told a meeting of Fine Gael’s parliamentary party last night that October’s budget will have an overall package of around €7 billion.

The split between tax and spending measures will be decided in the summer economic statement.

Harris is said to have told TDs and Senators that at its heart, it must be a budget that protects the economy “but must take decisions to help hard-working people”.

He wants the budget to focus on people “who are working every hour they have but are still struggling with everyday life” and said this should start with an income tax package.

Harris also reiterated plans for a new savings and investment scheme and said the budget must also begin delivering on the commitment of €200 per child per month by the end of the lifetime of the Government.

Byelection poll incoming

There is not long to wait now for political nerds and anxious byelection candidates as the results of The Irish Times/TG4-Ipsos B&A poll for the Dublin Central constituency are due to be published at 7pm this evening.

For those who can’t wait – Wednesday’s Inside Politics podcast features hasty predictions from our team – in the absence of any polling data whatsoever – as to who the front-runners may be.

Last week’s poll on Galway West put the cat among the pigeons suggesting a slim lead for Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne over Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas with Labour’s Helen Ogbu in third.

It was a bad poll for Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil.

Thursday’s byelection coverage features a cameo appearance by former Dublin Central candidate Bertie Ahern who has landed himself in hot water over some secretly recorded comments on immigration.

The video was taken during a canvass in support of Fianna Fáil’s candidate in the Dublin Central byelection, John Stephens.

Jack Horgan-Jones has the story on how Ahern has since insisted he has “no problem” with people from “the Congo” or Africa.

Miriam Lord’s column is headlined “Soon after it detonated, the Bertie Bomb took on a life of its own”, and looks at how Ahern’s remarks went down in the Dáil.

As it happens, the Bert also offered his own prediction for the byelection saying he didn’t think anyone should be ruled out, but that it was “probably a battle between Sinn Féin and the SocDems [Social Democrats]”.

We will get an indication of whether Ahern and The Irish Times politics team are on the right track as they peer into their respective crystal balls on Dublin Central when the poll is published on irishtimes.com this evening.

Best Reads

Our China Correspondent Denis Staunton reports that Xi Jinping has warned Donald Trump the issue of Taiwan, if it is “mishandled”, could lead to conflict between the two superpowers.

The Social Democrats abortion reform Bill was defeated in the Dáil on Wednesday by 85 votes to 30, with 36 abstentions, including all Sinn Féin TDs, Marie O’Halloran reports.

UK prime minister Keir Starmer is still fighting for his political life. London Correspondent Mark Paul reports that allies of Britain’s health secretary Wes Streeting were telephoning Labour Party MPs on Wednesday night asking them to back him in an imminent heave against Starmer. Follow our live coverage here.

An Oireachtas Committee has stopped short of recommending a ban on social media for under-16s but has said “harmful” social media recommender algorithms should be turned off and there should be a ban on infinite-scrolling features on platforms. We have the story here.

Patrick Freyne has a piece on “retro riding: a history of sex on Irish TV, from the Late Late Show to Rivals”.

Playbook

Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan is first up for Parliamentary Questions in the Dáil at 8.47am.

Martin Heydon, the Minister for Agriculture, is next to be quizzed by TDs at 10.23am.

Leaders’ Questions is at noon.

Government Business later in the day is a Second Stage debate on the proposed Industrial Development (Amendment) and Miscellaneous Provisions Bill 2026 from 1.52pm.

There is an opportunity for TDs to raise topical issues at 5.26pm.

Proposed legislation from People Before Profit-Solidarity aimed at bringing in economic sanctions against Israel will be debated from 6.26pm.

The Seanad will see debate on the An Garda Síochána (Powers) Bill 20226 from 11.45am.

The NTMA will be before the Dáil’s PAC to be quizzed on its 2024 accounts at 10.30am.

The Committee on Health will unveil its report on adult safeguarding at 11am.

The full Dáil, Seanad and Committee schedule can be found here.